Here is my vision on where music is going

Over the next few years, I expect the following changes will happen to music biz:

1) We will see more and more music available in the public view to listen to.
2) Artists will get known without signing with a major label.
3) Artists will connect more directly with their fans than ever before.
4) Labels will pay artists better royalties, and sign more people with fairer deals.
5) The model of a label will not be "one chance to make it big", but rather to find an audience for your songs, no matter what the size.
6) Peer-to-Peer systems will survive, and may be used for promotion of new artists, as well as "try before you buy".
7) The music you hear on broadcast radio will vary from city to city and region to region.
8) The internet will revolutionize discovery of new artists, and be able to sell CD and DVDs directly.
9) The artists will have ownership, and be in control, not the labels.

Now I describe them in detail:

1) We will see more and more music available in the public view to listen to: There are so many great artists out there. From new to experienced, in all genres and styles, there are lots of people that want to sing, compose, and play insturments. Before the internet era, it was hard to get a contract, and since the labels control the gateway to the public, it was hard to get your music heard. Not anymore, now the internet has changed this dramatically. Services like MP3.com, Napster, Centerspan, and other companies have programs to put unsinged bands on the internet. Many people love to discover new artists. There are small labels that take new artists, and distribute them to smaller audiences, where they are known. With web sites, people can order your CDs online.

2) Artists will get known without signing with a major label. Many indepdent labels are now offereing better royalities, and artists are making better livings than if they signed with a major. Many independents are getting good at promoting artists. Many introduce new business models, to find that audience, and connect them with their fans quickly. There are so many artists that a major would not sign, but an independent would sign and promote.

3) Artists will connect more directly with their fans than ever before. Many artists are doing a lot to connect with fans, this can include allowing taping at concerts, responding to their own e-mails, meeting fans, promotion by their web sites, and the like. Many artists now have taping sections at their concerts. The tapes help promote the artist, and when they get traded, more people become fans. When artists use the web for promotion, getting the feedback from e-mails and forums helps them see what fans think of them. This feedback can help them make better music. Getting to know fans, often means their fans tell their friends to come, and more.

4) Labels will pay artists better royalties, and sign more people with fairer deals. Most Majors will give an artist between 8% and 15% of sales, minus advances. Some indepedent labels will give them 50% plus ownership of their work. If more and more artists speak out about the bad deals of the majors, the majors will have to improve, or they will fail. At this point, it seems like the indie labels will become the "new majors", having a different business model. Granted, the artists will have to do a little more work for the indies, but it will benefit them, and they will connect with their fans.

5) The model of a label will not be "one chance to make it big", but rather to find an audience for your songs, no matter what the size. Most major labels give the artist "One chance to make it big, Nationally" and exploit artists all the way. Instead, the new way of the future will be "find an audience" for your song. The RIAA reports that "90% of artists fail to make a return on their investment". This is just not a way of business. The new model, will be sign a lot more artists, and find an audience for their music, and duplicate CDs in smaller numbers.

6) Peer-to-Peer systems will survive, and may be used for promotion of new artists, as well as "try before you buy". Lets face it, the RIAA may have castrated Napster, and may kill Morpheus, but Peer-to-Peer music sharing will live on! MP3 and other non-copy protected music files are here to stay, too! Gnutella, Freenet, Espra, GiFT, Bearshare, and other decentralized systems cannot be shut down with one lawsuit. Many artists think that P2P is a good promotional tool, too. Prince, BB King, The Rosenbergs, Dave Matthews Band, U2, Danielle Howle, Smashing Pumpkins, and others have come out in favor of P2P sharing of music. What the labels and artists need to do is to license the commercial P2P companies (i.e. Napster, Centerspan, Audiogalaxy, etc) music, and not worry too much about the open source, decentralized systems. Not every download is a lost sale, either. In many cases, it is promotion, or "try before you buy". Selling Blank CDs is another good compesnation idea for P2P music too. Many P2P companies have programs to put unsigned bands online too (I know Napster, MP3.com, Centerspan, and others have this).

7) The music you hear on broadcast radio will vary from city to city and region to region. The music you will hear on broadcast radio will soon vary from city to city, and region to region. This will be because there will be so many new artists. For example, Fusebox and Rockola, two local bands in San Diego, that are well known here, may not be known in New York. So, playing them on the radio in San Diego, would probably sell their CDs, since the name is good. A similar example, is with grocery stores. For example, Kroger owns stores under many names. Since there are no Krogers on the west coast, Kroger keeps the Ralphs name in California, since it is well known. Labels will do the same with bands and radio promotion. It will take time to build up nationally recongized artists. We will see more regional and local artists on the radio.

8) The internet will revolutionize discovery of new artists, and be able to sell CD and DVDs directly. Many services have new artist programs. Downloading music from download services will promote new bands. Web sites that list genres and artists will become popular. Internet radio will play many new artists. Many of them can be added to custom "internet radio stations" created by users, such as MusicMatch Radio MX, and the like. They will have an "Order CD" button right in the client. Many people who discover artists by streams and downloads, are more likely to buy their CD/DVD, or come out to their show. This is more direct fan interaction. Then, broadcast radio in other regions of the world can discover too, and start introducting them to other parts, once they are known locally.

9) The artists will have ownership, and be in control, not the labels. Ultimately, we will see artists owning their copyrights, be in controls of their distribution medium, and they will have total choice in which way they want to go in their career. Labels will follow the artists vision, not artists following the labels vision. Artists opinions on advances in technology will be respected, and different artists will see things differently. They will market CDs, and DVDs to their taste. They will tour when they want to, and make a living doing something they love, not be under "loan shark" conditions.

Stephen Hinkle